MOHANKA: Columbia sees Agho Theory in effect

No story is good without a twist, and very often it’s the twist that makes the story. I don’t think there’s a bigger twist in the world of sports than a season-ending injury to a key member of a team. Columbia basketball teams were dealt their own critical injury blows this winter when senior guard Noruwa Agho from the men’s and sophomore guard Brianna Orlich from the women’s basketball teams, respectively, became long-term injury casualties.

The effects of injuries can vary, though. Unanticipated as they always are, injuries often rattle a team—a former juggernaut can suddenly struggle to put together two wins in a row. History is littered with examples of big-name athletes getting injured and their teams suffering tremendously as a result.

However, there are some examples of teams actually performing better after the loss of a key player. I’m a die-hard fan of Liverpool Football Club, and, unfortunately, Steven Gerrard—the club captain and heartbeat of the side—has had more than his fair share of injuries in the past few seasons. I would never dare to question Gerrard’s footballing prowess—he is single-handedly responsible for much of the club’s success in the past decade—but I can’t deny that in some circumstances, it does feel like the team does better without him than it does with him.

There are several potential reasons for this: It may be that Gerrard tries too hard when he’s on the pitch, sometimes trying to do too much and ignoring the most efficient options for the team. It may be that others try too hard when Gerrard is around, and thus make questionable choices when they have the ball. It could even be that Gerrard’s teammates understand that he wants the ball more, and they trust him more than they should.

Bill Simmons, better known as the Sports Guy, and a friend of his—Dave Cirilli—came up with a theory in the 1990s to explain situations like the one I mention above. Cirilli was convinced that basketball player Patrick Ewing’s teams (both Georgetown University and the New York Knicks) did better when the star wasn’t around. Thus, the Ewing Theory was born. The theory essentially states that when a superstar who has created limited success for his or her team leaves due to an injury, trade, or free agency, that team will play better.

Columbia’s basketball star for most of the past three years, Agho got injured in the home opener against Furman, the Lions’ second game of the season. He led the Ivy League in scoring in 2010-2011, and the torn patellar tendon he suffered was understandably considered a huge blow to the Light Blue basketball program. However, prior to last weekend, the Columbia men’s basketball team had won 11 out of its last 12 games—an incredibly impressive feat. To put that in context, the last time a Columbia men’s basketball squad won 11 of 12 games was in 1981-1982. Ewing Theory in action? I think so.

Take nothing away from Agho, who is a fantastic talent and a huge asset to Columbia. I’m not saying the Lions don’t need him, but give credit to his coach and teammates for their ability to adapt. Coach Kyle Smith changed the way his team plays, and sharing responsibilities across the entire squad has seemed to make the Light Blue a more formidable force than when it relied so heavily on Agho. Junior guard Brian Barbour has stepped up to shoulder most of the offensive responsibility, and he’s been ably supported by sophomore guard Meiko Lyles and junior center Mark Cisco, among others. Considering Barbour’s new role, should the Lions worry about relying too much on Barbour, as they did on Agho? Maybe, but I think it’s less of a concern than it was with Agho—at point guard, Barbour seems to be a better distributor and more of a behind-the-scenes presence than the injured senior.

This past weekend, though, the Lions dropped both games to Penn and Princeton. Unfortunately for the Lions, Lyles, who has averaged 10.2 points per game this season, was below his best. A possible pitfall of the Ewing Theory: When one part of the machine underperforms, there’s no superstar to pick up the slack and take over. However, the 12 games prior to these two seem to suggest that the Lions are still capable of causing a stir in the Ivy League, even without Agho. The Light Blue’s next chance to set things right is just around the corner, when it hosts Cornell on Saturday. If the Lions can recapture their pre-Ivy season form, they could very well stun those who picked them to finish a lowly seventh. What’s most impressive is that they could cause that shock despite having been dealt what seemed like a killer blow to their season.

Of course, Agho will be back in 2012-2013. It’ll be like having a new five-star recruit. You’d expect that the team will be even better with their star man… or will they? Coach Smith will need to overcome the Ewing effect, and I’m optimistic. Agho’s injury has changed the way the team operates now. The adversity of this season has provided the platform to establish a new style of play for the Lions, with less reliance on individual talent. I see the return of the king as being more like adding a strong piece to a well-oiled machine, rather than building a new strategy around one player. Whether I’m right or wrong, only time will tell.

Mrinal Mohanka is a Columbia College senior majoring in economics. He is a former sports editor for Spectator and a daily editor for Spectrum.
sports@columbiaspectator.com